{"id":12837,"date":"2022-11-23T15:24:15","date_gmt":"2022-11-23T15:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambassadornews.org\/?p=12837"},"modified":"2022-11-23T15:24:21","modified_gmt":"2022-11-23T15:24:21","slug":"the-bank-of-canada-is-discovering-that-explaining-risk-to-canadians-is-actually-difficult%ef%bf%bc%ef%bf%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambassadornews.org\/en\/the-bank-of-canada-is-discovering-that-explaining-risk-to-canadians-is-actually-difficult%ef%bf%bc%ef%bf%bc\/","title":{"rendered":"The Bank of Canada is discovering that explaining risk to Canadians is actually difficult\ufffc\ufffc"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

But Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers says the central bank welcomes recent attention so it can try<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After years of being ignored by almost everyone but a few bankers and financial journalists, you might think\u00a0the people who work at the Bank of Canada would be annoyed by everyone telling them what to do<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But according to the bank’s senior deputy governor, Carolyn Rogers,\u00a0despite the bank becoming a political football criticized by\u00a0leaders of both opposition parties,\u00a0labour advocates,\u00a0homeowners and people in the real estate business, and by letters to the editor offering solutions that are declared obvious and simple,\u00a0she says they\u00a0like\u00a0all the attention<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think my colleagues have really embraced that extra scrutiny\u00a0and criticism,<\/q>\u00a0Rogers told a group of students and young financial professionals at the University of Ottawa Tuesday<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We’re getting lots of advice. We don’t agree with all of it, but we do listen to all of it<\/q><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Open season on central bankers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Others financial experts worry that now that it’s become\u00a0open season on central bankers, there is a danger that Canadians could lose confidence in the crucial job that the Bank of Canada does keeping our money safe and our financial system\u00a0sound<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In something like a Reddit Ask Me Anything, Rogers responded frankly to questions at Tuesday’s event\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But her message, which\u00a0began with an update on the\u00a0risk of instability to the Canadian financial system, was only partly reassuring<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank of Canada’s recent media star status makes the hour-long\u00a0session useful\u00a0unmediated viewing for those who have caught the central banking bug\u00a0(new window)<\/a>. It included the bank’s take\u00a0on\u00a0the current crypto crisis\u00a0(new window)<\/a>,\u00a0digital loonies\u00a0(new window)<\/a>\u00a0and climate change risk<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
A house for sale in Toronto on Feb. 15. Rogers said rising interest rates and falling house prices are hurting more mortgage holders.PHOTO:  CBC NEWS \/ ALEX LUPUL<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But as the bank warned in June in its annual Financial System Review, high Canadian debt levels, combined with high inflation\u00a0and the rising interest rates needed to get inflation under control, make\u00a0the Canadian economy vulnerable<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At that time, the bank warned those at greatest risk were people who bought a house at top prices and bottom mortgage rates, and said that it is possible\u00a0those buyers\u00a0would have to be sacrificed\u00a0(new window)<\/a>\u00a0for the good of the rest of the economy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the risk of job losses that would have compounded the problem may be waning, Rogers said, rising interest rates and falling house prices are hurting more mortgage holders<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bottom line is that mortgage costs for some Canadians have already increased and they will likely increase for most others in time,<\/q>\u00a0she said<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trigger warnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While those with fixed rate mortgages get a bit of a break before rate hikes kick in, an increasing number of those with floating rate mortgages have hit the “trigger rate\u00a0(new window)<\/a>” where mortgage payments simply are not enough to cover borrowing costs<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New data released by the bank on Tuesday shows that half of all variable mortgage holders with fixed payments now owe more than those fixed payments\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We estimate that just about all variable rate mortgages taken about between May 2020 and July 2022 are now in this position,<\/q>\u00a0said economist Royce Mendes in a\u00a0Desjardins\u00a0research note Tuesday<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A different kind of trigger also got a mention in Rogers’ speech, a reference to the kind of global or national crisis that could act on Canada’s vulnerabilities and send\u00a0the economy spiralling into bigger trouble\u00a0(new window)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The risk of a trigger that may affect financial stability has increased,<\/q>\u00a0she said<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central bankers don’t predict crises, they just warn about them. But it is not clear that those warnings of risk hit have home in the past. It is not clear if people are listening now<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there was a main message that came out of Rogers’\u00a0Tuesday session it was that the Bank of Canada is anxious to inform and educate Canadians\u00a0to help them understand monetary policy,<\/q>\u00a0she said.\u00a0But that may be a heavy lift, even though our central bankers keep trying<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial journalists like to try to make monetary policy\u00a0sound simple, but as a Tuesday interview with Jeremy Kronick, Director of Monetary and Financial Services Research at the C.D. Howe Institute showed, it really isn’t<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doing your own brain surgery<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kronick explained why the Bank of Canada was currently losing money, because it had borrowed bonds that paid low interest rates but was paying commercial banks high interest rates for the money they had used to do that. He explained the difference between corridor rates and floor rates. It is all outlined here in what Kronick said was “a way that people understand.” (new window)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact is that for most of us, central banking is not easy to understand. Like\u00a0brain surgery, people with aptitude spend years learning how to do it.\u00a0When we want a\u00a0stable financial system, we bring in experts to do the job<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That’s why it’s been a bit frustrating to see [the Bank of Canada] politicized so much,<\/q>\u00a0said Kronick, who noted that Rogers and her team are known to be qualified by those who do actually understand what they’re doing. They also know that even qualified experts can’t always predict the future<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kronick said that when central bankers\u00a0\u2014 not just the Bank of Canada\u00a0\u2014 failed to foresee that inflation would stick around after the COVID economic crash, commentators and politicians everywhere decided they could\u00a0out-think the central bank<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Increasing interest rates hurts, and taking\u00a0sides against the Bank of Canada may make people think you are smart. But he said eroding confidence in people like Rogers is bad for central banking and bad for the rest of us<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s natural that people are looking for alternative solutions,<\/q>\u00a0said KronickI’m just not convinced that these so-called other solutions are going\u00a0to lead to the results\u00a0that people want<\/q><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0CBC News<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

But Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers says the central bank welcomes recent attention so it can try After years of being ignored by almost everyone but a few bankers and financial journalists, you might think\u00a0the people who work at the Bank of Canada would be annoyed by everyone telling them what to do But according to 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