Some key issues will take centre stage no matter which party controls Congress, experts say
While the U.S. midterm elections could change the political landscape in Washington, experts say they’re unlikely to have much of an impact on Canada-U.S. relations — although they could shift the discussion on some key issues
The midterms elect one-third of the U.S. Senate and the entire House of Representatives, both of which are currently under Democratic control
Election forecasters view Republicans as overwhelming favourites to win back the House of Representatives (new window) and, increasingly, as slight (new window) favourites (new window) for regaining (new window) the Senate (new window)
But no matter which party holds the balance of power in Congress after the votes are counted, any shift in power will have little impact on relations between Washington and Ottawa
There really isn’t a partisan divide on Canada,
said Chris Sands, head of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank
The desire for good relations with Canada and to work things out and to occasionally have a serious conversation … is pretty consistent and … the composition of the Congress won’t likely change that
Maryscott Greenwood, head of the Canadian-American Business Council, pointed out that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade pact, referred to in Canada as CUSMA, was ratified with a Republican in the White House and a House of Representatives controlled by Democrats
No matter what happens, there will be a lot of new faces in Congress and it’s incumbent upon Canada … to introduce the Canadian American relationship to these new members,
Greenwood said
But both Sands and Greenwood said a number of critical issues will be the focus of the Canada-U.S. relationship going forward — regardless of which party has control of Congress
Inflation and the economy
Like Canada, the U.S. has been grappling with record-high inflation over the past year. Polls have cited the cost of living as a top priority for American voters
Central banks in both countries have hiked interest rates in recent months in an attempt to get inflation under control. But those hikes also have been slowing economic activity, leading many economists to predict a recession sometime in 2023
Due to the ties between the U.S. and Canadian economies, collaboration on economic issues will be crucial in the coming years, Greenwood said
How do we make sure that inflation doesn’t go bananas? How do we make sure that people are employed? And that is not an easy task,
she said. There are ways for Canada [and] the United States to collaborate on the economy that could help soften the blow
The U.S. recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes hundreds of millions of dollars to jump-start a new domestic industry manufacturing components for electric-vehicle batteries
But the industry will require access to some critical minerals, which could attract investment in Canada’s mining sector
Ottawa committed $3.8 billion in last spring’s budget to develop a critical mineral strategy. Greenwood said progress on that strategy has been slow
If Canada can move more quickly on its critical mineral strategy, that would be one example of how it could collaborate with the United States, take part in the bonanza of spending that is coming,
Greenwood said
Sands also suggested that the U.S and Canada could collaborate to provide easier access to business permits to boost economic activity on both sides of the border
I think there’s a lot of potential for bipartisan support in that area and that would be a net positive for Canada for sure,
he said
Environment
Another big piece of the Inflation Reduction Act is the $369 billion the U.S. is investing in climate change programs over the next decade — including clean-energy incentives that Ottawa sees as a threat to future investment in Canada
The Canadian government responded with a plan to match some of those incentives in last week’s fall economic statement (new window)
Sands said that if Republicans gain more influence in Congress, they’ll likely push for changes to the act
I don’t think everything in that bill is going to get thrown out. I think it’s going to have to be re-branded so Republicans can take some credit,
he said
Following the act’s passing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau downplayed warnings that Canada is falling behind the U.S. on climate action — in part by pointing to Canada’s carbon tax (new window)
But Sands said that even though a national carbon tax is a sleeper issue
in the U.S., he wouldn’t be surprised if it became part of the conversation
If the U.S. is even thinking of moving in that direction, that would be a hot button issue for Canada,
he said
Pipelines
Another hot button issue between Washington and Ottawa in recent years has been cross-border pipelines
Biden essentially killed the Keystone XL pipeline — which would have carried 830,000 barrels of crude a day from the oilsands in Alberta to the U.S. — when he revoked a presidential permit on his first day in office
Even if the Republicans — who are largely in favour of the project — take control of the House of Representatives, Greenwood said they likely won’t be able to revive Keystone
As long as the Biden administration is in the White House … you’re not going to have a return of the Keystone XL pipeline,
she said
But Sands said a Republican-controlled House could shift the conversation toward re-evaluating how pipelines and other infrastructure projects get approved in the U.S
He also pointed to Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline — which runs through Michigan from the Wisconsin city of Superior to Sarnia, Ont. — as an example of the United States’ complicated permit system for such projects
In 2020, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer revoked the easement that had allowed the line to operate since 1953. Enbridge has been fighting Michigan in court and the Canadian government has entered into talks with Washington to keep the pipeline operating
While Sands said Washington likely will want to have the final say over Line 5, the involvement of the state government makes the situation complicated
It’s a sign that in a more fundamental way, we’re not doing a good job of getting cross-border infrastructure going,
he said
So I think there’s time for a reboot of that conversation and to think about how we permit and review infrastructure. That’s something that I think has bipartisan support
Travel
One sticky issue that’s likely to linger regardless of which party ends up in control of Congress has to do with cross-border travel specifically, the NEXUS program that eases the flow of people across the Canada-U.S. border
Last week, a bipartisan group of U.S. Congress members sent a letter to their Canadian counterparts on the Canada-U.S. Inter-Parliamentary Group asking for their assistance navigating an issue of mutual concern: the NEXUS backlog and continued closure of Canadian service centres
NEXUS centres south of the border reopened in April after a pandemic-related pause
Canada, however, hasn’t done the same with its enrolment centres because of concerns about extending legal protections to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers operating on Canadian soil — protections that those same officers already enjoy at pre-clearance sites at Canada’s airports
The NEXUS issue is a major irritant,
Greenwood said. “Democrats and Republicans are worried about it
NEXUS is actually hanging by a thread. Canada should be quite worried about the future of that program if it doesn’t come up with a path forward
The federal government hasn’t said when — if ever — these Canadian offices will be operational again, but Trudeau said late last month he’s eager to get it rolling
· CBC News
