An American presidential historian predicts a Kamala Harris presidency as the outcome of the U.S. November elections
In an interview with CTV News Channel on Tuesday, Allan Lichtman forecast that Kamala Harris will become the first female president, the second of African descent and the first of South Asian descent
Lichtman is known for his accurate election predictions. He has correctly forecast the winner of nearly every presidential race since 1984, with the exception of one: Republican George W. Bush versus Democrat Al Gore in 2000
Lichtman disputes that he predicted right after claiming that “Florida messed up that election,” and Al Gore should have won
His method, the “13 keys to the White House,” examines the strength and performance of the incumbent party rather than polls or pundits
In an article published(opens in a new tab) in the National Council for the Social Studies, Lichtman outlines the 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third part, short- and long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign or military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma
“If six or more of the keys turn against the White House Party, they are predicted losers, fewer than six negative keys, they are predictive winners,” Lichtman explained to CTV News Channel
Using this model, Lichtman said in April 1982 he accurately predicted Ronald Reagan’s re-election, during the worst recession since the Great Depression and when the president’s approval ratings were down
“In 2016, I defied the pundits, the pollsters and most other modellers by calling the winner as Donald Trump, which did not make me very popular in 90 per cent plus democratic Washington, D.C., where I teach at American University,” Lichtman said
Lichtman’s prediction comes ahead of Tuesday’s highly anticipated debate between U.S. Vice-President Harris and her opponent, former U.S. president Trump
While many political analysts will closely watch the debate for clues about the election outcome, Lichtman cautions against putting too much stock in the event
“Debates do not predict election results any more than any event in the campaign – the ads, the fundraising, the speeches, the dirty tricks,” Lichtman said. “Hillary Clinton won all the debates and still lost in 2016. John Kerry won the debates against a very bad debater, George W. Bush, but still lost the election.”
Lichtman said his prediction comes before the debate to prove that outcomes are not dependent on campaign events. “But certainly, watch the debates. They’re interesting. They can give you insight into the candidates. They can be informative,” he added
